Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) promise to link electricity and gasoline markets. We are exploring the fuel choices of PHEV owners if they were to use current electricity tariffs and if they were to use real-time electricity pricing.
February 25: An innovation and policy agenda for commercially competitive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (goes to Environmental Research Letters page with links to full report and author contact information). DM Lemoine, DM Kammen and AE Farrell.
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) can use both grid-supplied electricity and liquid fuels. We show that under recent conditions, millions of PHEVs could have charged economically in California during both peak and off-peak hours even with modest gasoline prices and real-time electricity pricing. Special electricity rate tariffs already in place for electric vehicles could successfully render on-peak charging uneconomical and off-peak charging very attractive. However, unless battery prices fall by at least a factor of two, or gasoline prices double, the present value of fuel savings is smaller than the marginal vehicle costs, likely slowing PHEV market penetration in California. We also find that assumptions about how PHEVs are charged strongly influence the number of PHEVs that can be charged before the electric power system must be expanded. If most PHEVs are charged after the workday, and thus after the time of peak electricity demand, our forecasts suggest that several million PHEVs could be deployed in California without requiring new generation capacity, and we also find that the state's PHEV fleet is unlikely to reach into the millions within the current electricity sector planning cycle. To ensure desirable outcomes, appropriate technologies and incentives for PHEV charging will be needed if PHEV adoption becomes mainstream.
We are also investigating the grid impacts of charging large numbers of PHEVs. The goal is to assess the fleet sizes and charging patterns for which PHEVs would require new generation or transmission capacity within the near-term of electric power system planning and investment. Lastly, we are evaluating the economics of the vehicle purchase decision with respect to fuel prices and battery costs.
We are now launching the "California Clean Mobility Partnership," a major new PHEV research project for the Air Resources Board with funding authorized under AB 1811. This project will combine the efforts of the TSRC and a Southern California component headed by UC Irvine. Under this new three-year effort, we will be working with ARB, BAAQMD, and a major automaker to explore the potential behavioral response to PHEV technology (e.g., travel and recharging patterns), and PHEV emissions impacts, economics, and grid interface/technical considerations.